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Retirement Edge  /  401(k) Edge

Protect your 401(k) when markets fall — and still grow it.

One monthly model portfolio, built entirely from the funds already inside your plan. Backtested across 20 years — through 2008, 2020, and every correction between — with materially smaller drawdowns than a target-date default.

14.30%Average growth per year
backtested 2006–2025
$10,000 → $144,780What $10,000 could have
grown to in 20 years
−7.46%Its worst year across
20 years of backtesting
Start Free Trial — 20% Off See How It Works

Sign up free today. Your founding rate is reserved — lock it in at launch and start your 60-day free trial.

Works with
FidelityVanguardEmpowerSchwabT. Rowe PricePrincipalTransamerica+ any 401(k) provider
20-Year CAGR
401(k) Edge
14.30%
Freedom 2030
6.75%
$10,000 Grew To
401(k) Edge
$145K
Freedom 2030
$37K
Worst Single Year
401(k) Edge
−7.46%
Freedom 2030
−36.9%
Max Drawdown
401(k) Edge
−30.18%
Freedom 2030
−48.4%
The real risk

The danger isn't a weak return — it's a deep loss at the wrong time.

The default — a target-date fund on autopilot — rides every downturn straight down. No rotation, no defensive move, just full exposure. A deep loss near retirement can set you back years, because the money you give up in a crash is the money that isn't there to recover.

In 2008, the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund lost 36.9%. The 401(k) Edge model, using the same category of funds available in most plans, lost only 7.46% — then compounded forward from a much stronger position.

401(k) Edge was built to give private-sector savers the same kind of disciplined, data-driven approach that institutional investors use — without requiring a new account, a new advisor, or any specialized knowledge.

Why the target-date default fails over time

Full drawdown exposureA fixed blend absorbs every crash entirely — no rotation to safety.
Automatic conservatismTarget-date funds shift toward bonds as you age — right when compounding matters most.
No responsivenessThe allocation never changes regardless of market conditions — bull or bear.
Recovery time lostA −36.9% loss needs +59% just to break even — years of compounding gone.
The cost of staying fully exposed

In 2008, the default target-date fund fell −36.9%. The 401(k) Edge model fell −7.46% — and kept compounding from a far higher base.

Backtested, Jan 2006–Dec 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

401(k) Edge A process, not a prediction

Instead of predictions. Instead of opinions. Rules.

401(k) Edge follows the same defined set of rules every month — no headlines, no gut calls, no emotions. No new accounts, no advisors, no exotic instruments.

Your existing plan

Works with the funds you already have

No new brokerage accounts, no rollovers, no minimums. The model uses fund categories — large cap, extended market, international, money market — that exist in virtually every 401(k) plan. You stay inside your current employer plan.

One update a month

Check it once, then live your life

A single monthly update publishes on the first trading day of each month. It typically changes only about once a quarter — most months you confirm there's nothing new to do and close the app.

Rules, not feelings

Disciplined allocation — nothing exotic

Every move is driven by the same disciplined, rules-based process. No options, no shorts, no leverage. You decide whether to act. We publish the research. You stay in complete control.

Tested through the worst markets

What you'd have kept when the market fell.

The same $10,000 starting balance, run through every downturn of the last two decades — 2008, 2020, and every correction between. What matters most here isn't the peak return; it's how much you'd have kept when the market fell.

401(k) Edge — Backtested CAGR
14.30%
$10,000 → $144,780 · Jan 2006–Dec 2025
Fidelity Freedom 2030 — CAGR
6.75%
$10,000 → $36,944 · same period
−7.46%

Worst year in 20 years of backtesting.

In 2008 — the worst financial crisis in a generation — the 401(k) Edge model's worst year was −7.46%. The Freedom 2030 fund lost −36.9%. Source: Portfolio Visualizer.

Growth of $10,000 — 2006 to 2025
Backtested · Source: Portfolio Visualizer · Past performance does not guarantee future results
401(k) Edge Freedom 2030
Why losing less matters most

The balance you keep is the one you never had to rebuild.

A deep loss doesn't just hurt in the moment — it takes years to undo. Much of the edge is simply what the model didn't give back in the crashes, so your savings never had to climb out of a hole.

Worst Single Year
401(k) Edge
−7.46%
vs
Freedom 2030
−36.9%
Jan 2006–Dec 2025 · worst full calendar year
Break-Even Needed
After −7.46%
+8.1%
vs
After −36.9%
+59%
Return needed just to recover from worst year
20-Year CAGR
401(k) Edge
14.30%
vs
Freedom 2030
6.75%
Jan 2006–Dec 2025 · better return and smaller losses
~65%
Of the time
in equities
~35%
Of the time
defensive

How the model avoids the worst of every crash.

Across the 20-year backtest, the 401(k) Edge model was positioned defensively — rotating into money market and stable-value positions — about 35% of the time. When market conditions deteriorated, the model moved the allocation toward safety before the deepest losses developed. That defensive positioning is why the worst year in the backtest was only −7.46%, and why the recovery from each dip required so much less time than a buy-and-hold approach.

Two strategies for two plan types

Which strategy fits your plan?

Most 401(k) plans offer one of two fund lineups. 401(k) Edge has a backtested model for each — using only the fund categories your plan already includes.

Strategy A — 14.30% CAGR
Tiered Domestic

For plans with separate small, mid, and large cap options. Rotates across:

Large Cap
Small Cap
Mid Cap
Money Market
Backtested CAGR: 14.30% · Jan 2006–Dec 2025
Best fit: Plans with separate small cap and mid cap index funds
Strategy B — 14.22% CAGR
Broad Market + International

For plans with extended market and international exposure. Rotates across:

Large Cap
Extended Market
International
Money Market
Backtested CAGR: 14.22% · Jan 2006–Dec 2025
Best fit: Plans with an extended market or total market index plus an international fund

Not sure which applies? Log in to your 401(k) portal and check your fund lineup. Separate small cap and mid cap funds → Strategy A. Extended market or international fund → Strategy B.

401(k) Safety Calculator — Any Plan, Any Provider

How would your allocation have held up?

Pick a stretch of history and set your allocation across the fund categories in your plan — large, mid, small, extended market, international, bond, money market. It compounds your allocation month by month through the real market, then lays it against the 401(k) Edge model, so you can see the drawdowns you'd have lived through — not just the growth.

Years to evaluate
Jump to a period
Your allocation
Total: 100% ✓

Full 20 Years

Your allocation 401(k) Edge model
Analyzing 20 years of data…
Compounding your allocation month by month
Your 401(k)  — CAGR · worst year — 401(k) Edge  — CAGR · worst year —
✓ Stress test done  ·  Step 2 of 2 — Project growth

Now see where this allocation could grow.

You've seen it hold up. Next, project the same funds forward over your time horizon against the 401(k) Edge model. Your allocation carries straight over, no need to re-enter it.

Start Free Trial →
Founding Member Rate · Ends October 1 Start your 60-day free trial — then 20% off, all year. Free to sign up now. A few days before the October 1 launch we’ll email you to start your 60-day free trial — no charge during the 60 days. Cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged. On day 61 your one-year subscription begins at 20% off your first year, and the founding rate disappears the day we open to the public.
Start My Free Trial →
How it stacks up

Stronger long-term results, with materially smaller losses.

Backtested over the same 20 years, the 401(k) Edge model significantly outpaced both the default target-date fund and the broader 401(k) average.

401(k) Edge Model
14.30%
Backtested CAGR · 2006–2025
Avg. 401(k) investor CAGR
~6–8%
DALBAR 20-year average
Fidelity Freedom 2030
6.75%
FFFEX · same period

DALBAR's annual QAIB study has consistently found that average 401(k) investors underperform their own fund's benchmark due to poor timing and emotional decisions. The 401(k) Edge model uses rules — not reactions — to keep allocation disciplined. Backtested, hypothetical figures sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What $10,000 became

Same starting balance. Same 20 years. Very different endings.

A single $10,000 investment, held through every correction from January 2006 to December 2025.

401(k) Edge model$144,780
Fidelity Freedom 2030 (default)$36,944
Before you decide

Is 401(k) Edge right for you?

This is a research service for self-directed 401(k) investors. Here's an honest look at who it fits — and who it doesn't.

It may be a good fit if you…

Have a 401(k) with Fidelity, Vanguard, Empower, Schwab, or any provider
Want a disciplined, rules-based allocation approach
Are willing to act on a monthly update in about 5 minutes
Prefer data-driven decisions over autopilot
Are focused on long-term compounding, not short-term trading

It may not be the right fit if you…

Want someone to manage your money for you
Expect guaranteed returns or full capital protection
Need individualized investment or tax advice
Are unwilling to log in and make fund changes monthly
Have a plan that doesn't allow interfund transfers
How it works for you

"How do I actually put this to work?"

If you can log in to your 401(k) and change your fund allocation — which takes about 5 minutes — you can run this.

1

Start your free trial

Start your 60-day free trial and get first access the moment we launch October 1. See the current month's model portfolio and determine which strategy — A or B — fits your plan's fund lineup.

2

Read the monthly update

On the first trading day of each month, log in and read that month's allocation in plain English — which categories to hold, in what proportion. It typically only changes about once a quarter.

3

Update your allocation

Log in to your 401(k) portal and adjust your fund allocation to match the model's current allocation. Most plans allow this in 2–3 clicks. Your money never leaves your account. We never touch it.

Realistically about five minutes a month — and most months, even less.

Founding Member Rate · Ends October 1 You've seen the downside and the upside — reserve your founding rate now — 20% off, all year. Free to sign up now. Your trial starts at launch, with no charge for the 60-day trial. On day 61 your one-year subscription begins at 20% less for your entire first year, and the founding rate disappears the day we open to the public.
Start My Free Trial →
The truth about market timing

You can't time the market. So we don't try to.

"Don't time the market" is good advice — if you're guessing. 401(k) Edge doesn't guess. It follows rules-based research that leans into growth when conditions are favorable and rotates defensively before conditions deteriorate. The same research discipline that institutional investors rely on — now available for your 401(k).

What the pros have
Institutional investorsFull research teams determining when to rotate between asset classes.
Large pension fundsDedicated analysts managing risk and reward across every market environment.
Professional fund managersResearch desks — never making allocation decisions on autopilot.
Now,
so do you
Your team

401(k) Edge

We do the same research the pros rely on — tracking market conditions every month — then hand you one clear, plain-English allocation to act on inside your own 401(k).

Research doing the analysis for you
One clear update, published every month
About five minutes to implement

401(k) Edge is the research team in your corner — the same disciplined, data-driven approach the pros use, distilled into one clear update a month for your 401(k).

View Plans & Pricing
Before you decide

Your questions, answered.

Signing up before launch is free. That locks in the founding discount (20% off your first year) and your 60-day free trial. The trial itself starts at launch, and you're not charged during the 60 days. Cancel any time before the trial ends and you're never charged. If you continue, billing begins on day 61 as a one-year annual subscription at the founding rate.

On update day you'll receive a text reminder from us. Log in to your 401(k) provider's website or app, navigate to investments or fund allocation, and update your funds to match the model's current allocation — complete this before noon, as 401(k) fund changes execute at end-of-day. The whole process takes 2–5 minutes and most plans let you do it from your phone. Most months the update doesn't change, so there's nothing to do.

Yes, once — when you set up. Log in to your 401(k) and look at the available funds. If you see separate small cap and mid cap index funds, you're in a Strategy A plan. If you see an "extended market" or "total market" fund alongside an international fund, you're in a Strategy B plan. Your member dashboard will guide you through this. After the initial setup, you just follow the monthly update each month.

The monthly update publishes but typically only changes about once a quarter. Over a full year, most subscribers make just 3–5 actual changes — and some months there's simply nothing to do because the allocation is unchanged from the prior month.

All investing carries risk — including doing nothing. The 401(k) Edge model's 20-year backtest shows a worst year of −7.46% versus −36.9% for a typical target-date fund. The model's defensive rotation is designed to reduce exposure before the worst of each downturn, not to eliminate risk entirely. Backtested results are hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

No. Retirement Edge is a financial research and newsletter publisher, not a registered investment adviser. Nothing here constitutes individualized investment advice. We publish research; every decision — and every fund change — is yours. Your money stays in your own account and we never touch it. (Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)

Your 60-day free trial starts at launch — you won't be charged for 60 days. On day 61, your subscription begins automatically as a one-year commitment at the founding rate: 20% off your first year. Founding members who reserve before the October 1 launch get that 20% discount.

Simple Pricing

Choose the plan that fits your accounts.

Every plan includes the monthly update and full historical data access. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We email you a few days before launch to start the trial, and you’re never charged if you cancel during the 60 days.

Monthly update — first trading day of each month
Email & text alerts when the allocation changes
Full backtest research archive
Personal projection calculator
Founding rate — 20% off first year
Single Platform
TSP or 401(k)
$29$23/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $276 billed annually

  • Monthly update for TSP or 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
Dual Platform
TSP + 401(k)
$49$39/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $468 billed annually

  • Monthly updates for both TSP and 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
All access
Alpha Edge
Index + TSP + 401(k)
$149$119/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $1,428 billed annually

  • Alpha Edge index updates
  • TSP and 401(k) updates included free
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial

Be first in line when 401(k) Edge launches.

Retirement Edge launches October 1. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We’ll email you a few days before launch to start the trial — cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged.

Start Free Trial
60 days free, then billed Any provider, any balance
Retirement Edge
Important disclosures. Performance shown reflects a backtest of the 401(k) Edge model versus the Fidelity Freedom 2030 Fund (FFFEX) for January 2006 through December 2025, sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not represent actual trading results, and is shown for illustration only. Backtested results do not reflect fees, taxes, transaction costs, or slippage, which would reduce returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The calculator applies a constant annual return for simplicity; real returns vary year to year and may be negative. Retirement Edge is not a registered investment adviser and this page is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. 401(k) Edge is research you implement yourself — we publish, you decide. Retirement Edge is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Fidelity Investments or FMR LLC; the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund (FFFEX) is named only to identify the benchmark. (Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)