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Retirement Edge  /  TSP Edge

Defend your TSP in a downturn — with the G Fund on your side.

Rules-based model portfolios for your C, S, I, F, and G funds that move toward the G Fund's principal protection when markets weaken. Backtested across 20 years — including 2008 and 2020 — at a 14.35% annual growth rate (CAGR) vs 7.33% for the L 2030 fund, with a far shallower worst year.

14.35% Average growth per year
backtested 2006–2025
$10,000 → $146,136 What $10,000 could have
grown to in 20 years
−10.76% Its worst year across
20 years of backtesting
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For
Active Federal Employees Uniformed Military Federal Retirees with active TSP accounts
20-Year CAGR
TSP Edge
14.35%
L 2030
7.33%
$10,000 Grew To
TSP Edge
$146K
L 2030
$41K
Worst Single Year
TSP Edge
−10.76%
L 2030
−27.5%
Max Drawdown
TSP Edge
−34.8%
L 2030
−39.6%
The real risk

The danger isn't a low return — it's a big loss at the wrong time.

For most federal employees, the default — one L Fund, set and forgotten — rides every downturn straight down. A deep loss near retirement can set you back years, because the math of recovering from it is unforgiving: the bigger the fall, the larger the gain just to get back to even.

Tested through the worst markets

What you'd have kept when the market fell.

The same starting deposit, run through every downturn of the last two decades — 2008, 2020, and every correction in between. What matters most here isn't the peak return; it's how much of your balance survived the bad years.

TSP Edge — Backtested CAGR
14.35%
$10,000 → $146,136 · Jan 2006–Dec 2025
L 2030 Fund — Buy & Hold CAGR
7.33%
$10,000 → $41,118 · same period
20

Years of backtested data in this model.

2006 through 2025 — across 2008 and 2020. TSP Edge captured nearly 2× the returns of the L Fund. Backtested, hypothetical. Source: Portfolio Visualizer.

Growth of $10,000 — 2006 to 2025
Backtested · Source: Portfolio Visualizer · Past performance does not guarantee future results
TSP Edge L 2030
Why losing less matters most

The balance you keep is the one you never had to rebuild.

A deep loss doesn't just hurt in the moment — it takes years to undo. Much of the edge is simply what the model didn't give back in the crashes, so your savings never have to climb out of a deep hole.

Worst Single Year
TSP Edge
−10.76%
vs
L 2030
−27.5%
Worst year 2011 · the model also declined in 2008 (−10.60%) and 2018 (−1.45%)
Deepest Drawdown
TSP Edge
−34.8%
vs
L 2030
−39.6%
Peak-to-trough decline · shallower than the L Fund — not immunity
Break-Even Needed
TSP Edge
+53.5%
vs
L 2030
+65.6%
Return needed just to recover from max drawdown
~65%
Of the time
in C/S/I
~35%
Of the time
in G/F/stable

The reason TSP Edge outperforms in downturns.

TSP Edge allocates roughly 65% to the stock funds (C, S, I) when conditions are favorable and shifts toward 35% into safer holdings (G, F) when conditions deteriorate. It simply isn't in harm's way when the market falls, which is exactly why the backtest shows consistent outperformance during the worst years.

The five TSP funds

How the G and F funds cushion the fall.

TSP Edge covers all five funds — but for protection, the two that matter most are the F Fund (bonds) and the G Fund (government securities, which can't lose principal). When conditions deteriorate, the model steps toward them, so you're not fully exposed when the market drops.

C Fund (Large Cap)

The S&P 500 in your TSP account

The C Fund mirrors the S&P 500 — the 500 largest U.S. companies. It's typically TSP's best performer in strong markets.

S Fund (Small/Mid Cap)

Smaller companies, higher volatility

The S Fund holds smaller U.S. companies — more volatile but often stronger in certain market environments.

I Fund (International)

Diversification outside the U.S.

The I Fund tracks developed international markets — adds diversification and exposure beyond U.S. borders.

F Fund (Bonds)

Fixed income stability

The F Fund holds U.S. bonds — typically stable and defensive when stocks struggle.

G Fund (Government Bonds)

Capital preservation

The G Fund holds U.S. government securities — the safest option, used for capital preservation in uncertain times.

TSP Safety Calculator — Federal Employees & Military

How would your allocation have held up?

Pick a stretch of history and set your C, S, I, F, and G allocation. It compounds your allocation month by month through the real market — then lays it against the TSP Edge model, so you can see the drawdowns you'd have lived through, not just the growth.

Years to evaluate
Jump to a period
Your allocation
Total: 100% ✓

Full 20 Years

Your allocation TSP Edge model
Analyzing 20 years of data…
Compounding your allocation month by month
Your TSP  — CAGR · worst year — TSP Edge  — CAGR · worst year —
✓ Stress test done  ·  Step 2 of 2 — Project growth

Now see where this allocation could grow.

You've seen it hold up. Next, project the same funds forward over your time horizon against the TSP Edge model. Your allocation carries straight over, no need to re-enter it.

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Founding Member Rate · Ends October 1 You've seen the downside and the upside — reserve your founding rate now — 20% off, all year. Free to sign up now. Your trial starts at launch, with no charge for the 60-day trial. On day 61 your one-year subscription begins at 20% less for your entire first year, and the founding rate disappears the day we open to the public.
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The truth about market timing

You can't time the market. So we don't try to.

TSP Edge doesn't try to predict. It follows a rules-based model that leans into stocks when data is favorable and shifts toward bonds and government securities when conditions deteriorate — not a forecast, but a disciplined response to conditions already visible in the data. Large institutions don't leave allocation on autopilot; they run continuous research. Most federal employees don't have a research desk behind their TSP. Retirement Edge is built to fill that gap.

What the pros have
Hedge fundsEntire teams of analysts deciding when to take on risk and when to step back.
Investment banks & pro tradersFull research desks tracking risk, reward, and every shift in the market.
Successful investorsA team of analysts behind every move — research-driven, never on autopilot.
Now,
so do you
Your team

TSP Edge

We do the research — weighing risk, reward, and market conditions every month — then hand you one clear, plain-English allocation to act on.

A research desk doing the analysis for you
One clear update, published every month
About five minutes to act on it

TSP Edge is the research team in your corner — disciplined analysis, distilled into one clear update a month.

View Plans & Pricing
Before you decide

Your questions, answered.

If you've ever submitted an interfund transfer at tsp.gov, you have every skill you need. Each month you read one short, plain-English allocation and submit up to one transfer to match it. Most subscribers spend about five minutes a month.

On update day you'll receive a text reminder from us. Log in on the first trading day of the month, read that month's model portfolio, and — only if it's different from last month — submit an interfund transfer to match. If a change is needed, place it before noon — TSP transfers execute at end-of-day close. Most months the allocation doesn't change, so you'll simply confirm and move on.

No. Retirement Edge is a financial research and newsletter publisher, not a registered investment adviser. TSP Edge publishes research; every decision and trade is yours. (Retirement Edge is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the Thrift Savings Plan, the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, or any U.S. government agency. Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)

The L Fund is designed for set-it-and-forget-it simplicity — it automatically becomes more conservative as you approach retirement. TSP Edge repositions its published allocation as market conditions change — the model changes, and every subscriber receives the same monthly update. Over the 20-year backtest this produced better risk-adjusted returns than the L Fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Rarely. The monthly update publishes but typically only changes about once a quarter. Over a full year, that usually means just a few adjustments — not constant buying and selling. TSP allows two free interfund transfers per calendar month.

Yes. TSP Edge works in Traditional, Roth, and all agency TSP account types. The model's allocations apply the same logic to any account holding C, S, I, F, and/or G funds.

No minimum. TSP Edge works whether you're working toward your first $1,000 or managing a six-figure balance. The principles and model portfolios are the same at any account size.

Because TSP is typically held in tax-advantaged accounts (Traditional and Roth), interfund transfers within your account have no immediate tax impact. We publish research, not tax advice — consult your own tax professional for your specific situation.

Simple Pricing

Choose the plan that fits your accounts.

Every plan includes the monthly update and full historical data access. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We email you a few days before launch to start the trial, and you’re never charged if you cancel during the 60 days.

Monthly update — first trading day of each month
Email & text alerts when the allocation changes
Full backtest research archive
Personal projection calculator
Founding rate — 20% off
Single Platform
TSP or 401(k)
$29$23/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $276 billed annually

  • Monthly update for TSP or 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
Dual Platform
TSP + 401(k)
$49$39/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $468 billed annually

  • Monthly updates for both TSP and 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
All access
Alpha Edge
Index + TSP + 401(k)
$149$119/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $1,428 billed annually

  • Alpha Edge index updates
  • TSP and 401(k) updates included free
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial

Be first in line when TSP Edge launches.

Retirement Edge launches October 1. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We’ll email you a few days before launch to start the trial — cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged.

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60 days free, then billed Any TSP account type
Retirement Edge
Important disclosures. Performance shown reflects a backtest of the TSP Edge model versus the TSP L 2030 Fund for January 2006 through December 2025, sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not represent actual trading results, and is shown for illustration only. Backtested results do not reflect fees, taxes, transaction costs, or slippage, which would reduce returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Retirement Edge is not a registered investment adviser and this page is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. TSP Edge is research you implement yourself — we publish, you decide. (Retirement Edge is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the Thrift Savings Plan, the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, or any U.S. government agency. Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)