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Retirement Edge  /  Alpha Edge

Grow your investments with a rules-based ETF strategy.

A rules-based allocation model that tells you what to hold and when to change — using everyday index funds. Backtested across 20 years, through the 2008 and 2020 downturns, with far smaller losses than simply buying and holding.

19.96% Average growth per year
backtested 2006–2025
$10,000 → $380,641 What $10,000 could have
grown to in 20 years
+1.5% Its worst year was still
a gain — never a loss
Start Free Trial — 20% Off See How It Works

Sign up free today. Your founding rate is reserved — lock it in at launch and start your 60-day free trial.

Works in
Fidelity Schwab Vanguard E*TRADE Robinhood + any brokerage
20-Year CAGR
Alpha Edge
19.96%
SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
10.91%
Target-Date
6.75%
$10,000 Grew To
Alpha Edge
$381K
S&P 500
$79K
Target-Date
$37K
Worst Single Year
Alpha Edge
+1.5%
S&P 500
−36.8%
Target-Date
−36.9%

Backtested, hypothetical results · Jan 2006–Dec 2025 · calculated with Portfolio Visualizer. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The real problem

The problem usually isn't skill — it's emotion.

Most investors underperform because emotion drives decisions at the worst possible moments — in both the best and worst market environments.

In 2008, millions of investors who watched their balances fall 40–50% sold at the bottom, locking in catastrophic losses and missing the recovery entirely. Not because they were uninformed — but because watching your life savings evaporate is genuinely terrifying.

Alpha Edge was developed to remove those emotions through a disciplined, rules-based investment process. Same starting deposit, same two decades, completely different outcome.

The emotions that cost investors the most

Fear at the bottomSelling when markets are down — locking in losses at the worst moment.
Greed at the topChasing performance after it's already happened, buying high.
Second-guessingChanging plans mid-cycle based on headlines and short-term noise.
OverconfidenceConcentrated positions and ignoring risk when things feel good.
A process, not a prediction

Instead of predictions. Instead of opinions. Rules.

Alpha Edge follows the same defined set of rules every month — no headlines, no gut calls, no emotions. Research you can understand, with nothing exotic under the hood.

Everyday building blocks

Simple index ETFs — nothing exotic

The model only ever holds plain, liquid index-tracking ETFs you already know. No shorts, no options, no leverage, no derivatives. Just familiar funds, allocated differently.

One update a month

Check it once, then live your life

A single monthly update publishes on the first trading day of each month. It usually changes only about once a quarter — most months, there's nothing new to do at all.

Rules, not feelings

Disciplined and fully transparent

Every move is driven by the same disciplined, rules-based process — not headlines or hunches. You make every decision. We publish the research; you act.

20-year backtested record

The numbers — including the bad years.

The same starting deposit, left to run under each approach through every market of the last two decades. Including 2008. Including 2020. Including every correction in between.

Alpha Edge — Backtested CAGR
19.96%
$10,000 → $380,641 · Jan 2006–Dec 2025
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) — Buy & Hold CAGR
10.91%
$10,000 → ~$79,000 · same period
Fidelity Freedom 2030 — Target-Date CAGR
6.75%
$10,000 → $36,944 · same period
0

Zero losing years in 20 years of backtesting.

2006 through 2025 — across 2008 and 2020. The weakest full calendar year: +1.5% — though intra-year declines ran deeper, with a maximum drawdown of −15.4% in 2008. Backtested, hypothetical. Source: Portfolio Visualizer.

Growth of $10,000 — 2006 to 2025
Backtested · Source: Portfolio Visualizer · Past performance does not guarantee future results
Alpha Edge Freedom 2030
Why loss mitigation matters

Beating the market starts with not losing it.

The 19.96% comes from more than big up-years. A large part of the edge is what the model didn't give back in the crashes — because the math of recovering from a deep loss is brutal.

Worst Single Year
Alpha Edge
+1.5%
vs
Freedom 2030
−36.9%
Alpha Edge's weakest year was still a gain · 2011
Deepest Drawdown
Alpha Edge
−15.4%
vs
Freedom 2030
−48.4%
Peak-to-trough decline · the hole to climb out of
Break-Even Needed
Alpha Edge
+18.2%
vs
Freedom 2030
+93.8%
Return needed just to recover from max drawdown
~61%
Of the time
out of stocks
~39%
Of the time
in stocks

The reason there's never been a losing year.

Alpha Edge is defensive far more often than people expect. Across the 20-year backtest, the model was out of the stock market about 61% of the time — rotating into alternatives like gold, Treasuries and money market when its rules turned cautious — and fully exposed to stocks only about 39% of the time. It simply wasn't in harm's way when the market fell, which is exactly why the backtest never posted a losing year.

The building blocks

Everyday ETFs — the same ones you can buy in any brokerage.

The model rotates among a short, familiar menu of index-tracking funds. Here's the full toolkit, with each asset's own backtested return for the period.

QQQ
Nasdaq 100
Large-cap U.S. growth & technology.
15.4% CAGR
SPY
S&P 500
The 500 largest U.S. companies.
10.8% CAGR
IJH
Mid Cap
Mid-size U.S. companies.
9.2% CAGR
IJR
Small Cap
Smaller U.S. companies.
8.2% CAGR
IEF
U.S. Treasuries
Government bonds — a flight-to-safety anchor.
3.0% CAGR
GLD
Gold
Physical-gold proxy — a crisis hedge.
10.7% CAGR
BIL
Money Market
Cash & equivalents — the parking spot.
1.7% CAGR
7
Holdings, that's it
The model decides how much of each to hold — and when to step aside.
Nothing exotic

Tickers are illustrative of each asset class. Buy-and-hold CAGRs sourced from Portfolio Visualizer, Jan 2006–Dec 2025. The model decides how much to hold in each asset, and when to rotate to safety — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Run your own numbers

Project your own portfolio.

Set your current allocation — including any bonds or target-date fund you hold today — and run it against the Alpha Edge model over your time horizon. Adjust and re-run as often as you like — the more you experiment, the clearer the difference becomes.

Your information
Your current allocation
Total: 100% — Balanced ✓
Your Projection—
Alpha Edge Model — 19.96%—
Projecting your retirement…

Projections apply constant 20-year CAGRs (Jan 2006–Dec 2025, sourced from Portfolio Visualizer): Alpha Edge 19.96%. Your allocation’s return is the weighted average of each fund's historical CAGR. Backtested performance is hypothetical and assumes a constant annual return; real returns vary year to year and may be negative. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

✓ Projection done  ·  Step 2 of 2 — Stress-test it

Now see how this allocation survives a crash.

You've seen the upside. Next, run the same allocation through the market's worst years — 2008, 2020 & 2022 — in the Index ETF Safety Calculator. Your mix carries straight over, no need to re-enter it.

Start Free Trial →
Founding Member Rate · Ends October 1 Start your 60-day free trial — then 20% off, all year. Free to sign up now. A few days before the October 1 launch we’ll email you to start your 60-day free trial — no charge during the 60 days. Cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged. On day 61 your one-year subscription begins at 20% off your first year, and the founding rate disappears the day we open to the public.
Start My Free Trial →
Founding Member Rate · Ends October 1 You've seen the growth and the downside — reserve your founding rate now — 20% off, all year. Free to sign up now. Your trial starts at launch, with no charge for the 60-day trial. On day 61 your one-year subscription begins at 20% less for your entire first year, and the founding rate disappears the day we open to the public.
Start My Free Trial →
How it stacks up

Backtested, it outpaced the index — and most active managers.

Backtested over the same two decades, the Alpha Edge model's annualized return cleared both a simple S&P 500 fund and the returns most professional managers delivered over comparable periods.

Alpha Edge
19.96%
Backtested CAGR · 2006–2025
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) buy & hold
10.91%
Same period · index fund
Target-date fund (FFFEX)
6.75%
Fidelity Freedom 2030

Independent industry research — including S&P's SPIVA scorecards — has long shown that the large majority of active managers fail to beat a low-cost S&P 500 index fund over 10- and 20-year windows. Bear in mind the three are not like-for-like: the S&P 500 stays fully invested in equities and the target-date fund is a conservative blended portfolio, so they carry different risk profiles. The Alpha Edge model is a backtest, not a fund or a manager; figures are hypothetical, sourced from Portfolio Visualizer, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Before you decide

Is Alpha Edge right for you?

This is a research service for self-directed investors. It may be a strong fit — or it may not be. Here's how to think about it honestly.

It may be a good fit if you…

Manage your own investments in a brokerage or IRA
Want a disciplined, rules-based investment process
Prefer a clear monthly update over constant research
Are focused on long-term wealth creation, not trading
Appreciate data-driven decision making over gut calls
Can commit ~5 minutes a month to act on the monthly update

It may not be the right fit if you…

Want someone else to manage your money for you
Expect guaranteed results or capital protection
Need individualized investment or tax advice
Are looking for day-trading or short-term speculation
Won't be comfortable sitting through a 10–20% drawdown
How it works for you

Putting Alpha Edge to work is simple.

It's about as simple as a subscription gets. If you can place a trade in your brokerage app, you can run this.

1

Become a member

Start your 60-day free trial and get first access the moment we launch October 1. Log in to your member dashboard and see the current model portfolio immediately.

2

Open the monthly update

On the first trading day of each month, log in and read that month's allocation in plain English — which ETFs to hold, and how much of each.

3

Match it in your account

Place the trades in whatever brokerage you already use. Your money never leaves your account. We never touch it. Then close the app until next month.

Realistically, that's about five minutes a month — and most months, even less.

The truth about market timing

You can't time the market. So we don't try to.

"Don't try to time the market" is good advice — for guessing. Alpha Edge doesn't guess. It follows a rules-based model that leans into the market when data is favorable and shifts toward safety when it isn't — not a prediction, but a disciplined response to conditions that are already visible. Large institutions don't leave allocation on autopilot; hedge funds, investment banks, and professional desks run continuous research. Most individual investors don't have that kind of research behind them. Retirement Edge is built to change that.

What the pros have
Hedge fundsEntire teams of analysts deciding when to take on risk and when to step back.
Investment banks & pro tradersFull research desks tracking risk, reward, and every shift in the market.
Institutional investorsTeams of analysts behind every move — research-driven, never on autopilot.
Now,
so do you
Your team

Alpha Edge

We do the research — weighing risk, reward, and market conditions every month — then hand you one clear, plain-English allocation to act on.

A research desk doing the analysis for you
One clear update, published every month
About five minutes to put it to work

Alpha Edge is the research team in your corner — disciplined analysis, distilled into one clear update a month.

View Plans & Pricing
Before you decide

Your questions, answered.

If you've ever bought a fund in an online brokerage, you already have every skill you need. Each month you read one short, plain-English allocation and place a handful of trades to match it. Most subscribers spend about five minutes a month, and many months there's nothing to change at all.

On update day you'll receive a text reminder from us. Log in on the first trading day of the month, read that month's model portfolio, and — only if it's different from last month — adjust your holdings to match. Place any trades before noon. Most months the allocation doesn't change, so you'll simply confirm and close the app.

No. The model only uses widely available index ETFs, so it works in essentially any taxable brokerage or IRA — Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard, and others. Your money stays in your own account at all times. We never take custody of your funds and never place trades for you.

In the 2006–2025 backtest, the model's rules moved it toward safer assets when market conditions deteriorated, which historically softened the worst declines — the weakest full year was +1.5%. That is backtested, hypothetical performance, not a guarantee. No investment can promise it will never lose money, and future results may be negative. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Rarely. The monthly update publishes but typically only changes about once a quarter. Over a full year, that usually means just a few adjustments — not constant buying and selling.

No. The model holds only long positions in plain index-tracking ETFs. There are no options, no short selling, no margin, no leverage, and no derivatives of any kind. Its risk control comes from when it holds each asset — not from complex instruments.

Because changes are infrequent, turnover is relatively low. In a tax-advantaged account like an IRA, rebalancing generally has no immediate tax impact — which is why many subscribers run the model inside an IRA. In a taxable account, trades can create taxable gains or losses. We publish research, not tax advice — consult your own tax professional.

No. Retirement Edge is a financial research and newsletter publisher, not a registered investment adviser, and nothing here is individualized advice. We publish research; every decision — and every trade — is yours. (Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)

There's no minimum. Because the model uses ordinary ETFs you can buy in any size, it works whether you're starting with a few thousand dollars or rolling over a larger balance.

Membership

The full Alpha Edge research, by subscription.

Alpha Edge is our flagship research and is included in the Alpha Edge plan, alongside our TSP and 401(k) updates. Subscribe to Alpha Edge and get all three for one price.

Founding-Rate Reservation
Alpha Edge · all access
$149$119/mo
Founding rate — 20% off year one · $1,428 billed annually
  • ✓Monthly Alpha Edge update — first trading day of each month
  • ✓Plain-English allocations — about 5 minutes a month
  • ✓Email & text alerts whenever the allocation changes
  • ✓Full 20-year backtest research archive
  • ✓Personal projection calculator
  • ✓Also includes TSP Edge & 401(k) Edge updates — complimentary

Reserve every monthly update at the founding rate.

Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We’ll email you a few days before launch to start the trial — cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged.

Start Free Trial

60 days free, then billed at the founding rate. Founding rate: 20% off your first year. See all plans on the pricing page.

Simple Pricing

Choose the plan that fits your accounts.

Every plan includes the monthly update and full historical data access. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We email you a few days before launch to start the trial, and you’re never charged if you cancel during the 60 days.

Monthly update — first trading day of each month
Email & text alerts when the allocation changes
Full backtest research archive
Personal projection calculator
Founding rate — 20% off
Single Platform
TSP or 401(k)
$29$23/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $276 billed annually

  • Monthly update for TSP or 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
Dual Platform
TSP + 401(k)
$49$39/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $468 billed annually

  • Monthly updates for both TSP and 401(k)
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial
All access
Alpha Edge
Index + TSP + 401(k)
$149$119/moSave 20%

Founding-member rate for year one · $1,428 billed annually

  • Alpha Edge index updates
  • TSP and 401(k) updates included free
  • Full historical research access
  • Founding rate reserved — 20% off your first year
Start Free Trial

Be first in line when Alpha Edge launches.

Retirement Edge launches October 1. Reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. We’ll email you a few days before launch to start the trial — cancel any time during the 60 days and you’re never charged.

Start Free Trial
60 days free, then billed Any brokerage or IRA
Important disclosures. Performance shown reflects a backtest of the Alpha Edge model versus the Fidelity Freedom 2030 Fund (FFFEX) and the S&P 500 for January 2006 through December 2025 (20 full calendar years), sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not represent actual trading results, and is shown for illustration only. Backtested results do not reflect fees, taxes, transaction costs, or slippage, which would reduce returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The calculator applies a constant annual return for simplicity; real returns vary year to year and may be negative. Retirement Edge is not a registered investment adviser and this page is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Alpha Edge is research you implement yourself — we publish, you decide. Retirement Edge is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Fidelity Investments or FMR LLC; the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund (FFFEX) is named only to identify the benchmark. (Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)