Start simple. Go as deep as you'd like. Every section builds on the last.
Managing your retirement account with Retirement Edge takes less than five minutes a month. Retirement Edge runs the rules, watches the data, and publishes the monthly update — so all you have to do is make one simple trade. Here is the complete process.
Start your 60-day free trial and, at launch, you'll have full access to the monthly update for the strategy you choose. Opt in to SMS notifications so you receive a text on update day.
On the morning of the first trading day of each month, the Retirement Edge team delivers your monthly update — and sends you a text reminder to check it. Each month's published research shows the model's current allocation — which fund it holds for the coming month. You review it and decide whether to act.
If you decide to follow the month's allocation, log into your own retirement account and make the change yourself. Mutual-fund and TSP transfers submitted before the market close execute at that day's closing price — then you're done for the month. Every decision is yours.
What "rotation" means: The monthly update shows one thing — which fund the model holds. If your current fund is already the right one, no action is needed. If a rotation is indicated, you sell your current position and buy the fund the model holds. One transaction, once a month.
The rules do the work. Every month we run the same rules against the market data, so you don't have to watch it. You never need to watch the news, track prices, or guess which fund to pick. When the research is published, we notify you. Acting on it is your decision — typically a single fund change, less than five minutes, once a month.
Before going further, here are the key terms defined in plain language. These come up throughout the site and in every strategy explanation.
The published output of the monthly analysis — the model's allocation for the coming month. Research you review and choose to act on, not a forecast, an opinion, or personalized advice.
Moving from one fund to another based on the monthly update. If the update indicates staying in your current fund, nothing changes. If a rotation is triggered, you move from one fund to the next. One trade, once a month.
A "set it and forget it" fund that automatically adjusts its mix of stocks and bonds as you approach a target retirement year. A 2030 fund is designed for someone retiring around 2030. Most 401(k) and TSP participants use these as a default when they're not actively managing their account.
Compound Annual Growth Rate. The average annual return your money would have had to earn each year — compounded — to reach the ending value from the starting value. It is the most honest single number for comparing investment performance over time. See the full explanation below.
Running a strategy through historical market data to see how it would have performed. Retirement Edge uses 20 full calendar years of actual market data (January 2006 through December 2025) to test each strategy. Our backtesting is done through Portfolio Visualizer. Backtesting does not guarantee future results, but it provides the most rigorous historical evidence available.
The comparison investment against which each strategy is measured. We use the most common "default" choice for each plan type — the 2030 lifecycle fund appropriate to that plan — so the comparison is fair to both sides.
A fixed, long-term mix of stocks and bonds — chosen once and rebalanced back to the same targets. It is the model behind most target-date and lifecycle funds: a static asset allocation set by age and left alone. Simple, but it holds the same blend through every market.
An approach that adjusts the portfolio as market conditions change rather than holding one fixed mix. Where a strategic asset allocation stays put, a tactical asset allocation shifts which funds you hold over time. Every Retirement Edge strategy is rules-based and tactical — one decision a month, applied to the funds already in your plan.
Every performance claim on this site is measured against one number: the return of the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund (FFFEX) for 401(k) strategies, and the TSP Lifecycle 2030 fund (L 2030) for TSP strategies. That choice is deliberate.
The majority of 401(k) and TSP participants who are not actively managing their accounts end up in a target-date fund. Their employer picks a default, they never change it, and their retirement balance grows — or doesn't — at whatever rate the fund earns. For someone retiring in the early-to-mid 2030s, the 2030 fund is the most common default choice. It represents what a prudent, hands-off retirement investor is most likely already holding.
A 2020 fund would be too conservative — it holds mostly bonds, which understates the stock-market risk that most retirement savers are actually taking. A 2040 fund would be too aggressive for fair comparison. The 2030 fund strikes the middle: a meaningful stock allocation with gradual glide toward safety. It is a fair opponent.
The S&P 500 is an all-stock benchmark with no downside protection built in. Comparing a risk-managed, rotating strategy to a pure stock index would be misleading in both directions — favorable in bear markets, unfavorable in the strongest bull runs. The lifecycle fund is a more honest peer because it, like Retirement Edge, is designed for real retirement savers who cannot afford to ride out a 40% loss.
The core question we answer: If you are currently in a 2030 lifecycle fund and doing nothing, how much more could a rules-based, rotating approach have returned over the same 20-year period — with the same starting balance, no additional contributions, and no market-timing guesswork?
CAGR stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate. It answers this question: if my investment grew at a perfectly steady rate each year, what would that rate have been?
If $10,000 grows to $146,136 over 20 years, the CAGR equals:
($146,136 ÷ $10,000)1/20 − 1 = 14.35% per year
At the TSP L 2030 benchmark rate of 7.33%, that same $10,000 becomes $41,118 — less than one-third as much. The 7-percentage-point gap between 14.35% and 7.33% does not look dramatic on paper. Over two decades, compounded, it produces a difference of more than $105,000 from a single $10,000 investment.
Consider an investment that gains 50% in year one and loses 50% in year two. The arithmetic average is 0%. The actual result: $10,000 → $15,000 → $7,500. You have lost 25% of your money while the average return claims zero. CAGR captures this truth. It compresses the entire history of gains and losses into the single annual rate that honestly describes your outcome.
The effect of compounding is non-linear. The difference between 7% and 14% does not double your outcome — it multiplies it. At 7%, $10,000 doubles in about 10 years. At 14%, it doubles in about 5 years. Over 20 years, the gap is not 2×. It is 3.5×. Every percentage point of CAGR you add to your retirement account is worth increasingly more as time passes. This is why the comparison to the lifecycle fund benchmark — not just any benchmark — is the right one. Both sides compound. Only one compounds faster.
The backtesting period — January 2006 through December 2025 — was chosen for a specific reason. Around 2005 and 2006, financial markets underwent a structural transformation that permanently changed how they operate. Data from before that period reflects a different world.
Broadband internet reached the majority of American households. Market-moving news that once took hours to disseminate now reached every participant in seconds. The informational edge of "knowing first" — historically available to institutional traders through expensive terminals — largely disappeared for ordinary price movements.
Discount brokerages had matured by the mid-2000s. Commission-free trading, low-cost index funds, and accessible account platforms meant that retail investors could move between positions quickly and cheaply — a capability previously reserved for professionals.
Exchange-traded funds proliferated through 2003–2007, making it practical to rotate between U.S. stocks, international stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold with a single transaction. The flexibility that Retirement Edge relies upon — rotating cleanly between fund types — did not meaningfully exist for most investors before this era.
Computer-driven strategies began accounting for a substantial share of market volume by the mid-2000s. This changed the character of price patterns, volatility clustering, and intraday behavior in ways that did not exist in earlier market data.
The 20-year period includes everything. Two major market crashes (2008 financial crisis, 2022 rate shock). A pandemic. Multiple Fed tightening cycles. Bull and bear markets of different durations and intensities. A zero-interest-rate era and its reversal. This sample is not cherry-picked for favorable conditions — it is the full modern market record.
Each month, before the monthly update is released, the Retirement Edge analysis team conducts a structured, multi-layered review of current market conditions. The process draws on several independent streams of analysis — each providing a different lens on the same markets, and each capable of overriding conclusions from the others when conditions warrant.
This is not a single formula, a single indicator, or an automated output. It is an intentionally broad review designed to avoid the blind spots that come with relying on any one method.
An examination of price action across multiple timeframes: trend direction and strength, chart formations, volume patterns, and key support and resistance levels for each fund and the asset classes it represents. Price is the ultimate aggregator of market opinion — it reflects everything the market collectively knows at the moment of every transaction.
A survey of the broader environment in which markets are operating: Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations, credit market conditions, the trajectory of corporate earnings, leading economic indicators, and the relationship between different asset classes under current conditions. Macro context does not drive the model directly — but it determines which technical indicators are credible and which should be treated with caution.
A review of what is actively driving market narrative: earnings surprises and forward guidance, geopolitical developments, regulatory or legislative changes, shifts in analyst consensus, and sector-specific events. Markets often begin moving on narrative well before the underlying data confirms the move. Monitoring headline flow is part of understanding why price is doing what it is doing.
An assessment of the fundamental conditions of the sectors and markets involved: valuations relative to historical norms, the relative financial strength of the industries represented by each fund option, and whether current pricing appears to be fairly reflecting the underlying economic reality. Fundamental analysis provides the longer-term anchor that prevents the technical and news analysis from chasing short-term noise.
All of this is synthesized into a single decision: which fund to hold for the coming month. The monthly update is not a market prediction. It is a systematic, evidence-based response to the totality of current conditions across all four analytical dimensions — issued once per month, consistent with how mutual funds and TSP funds execute trades.
This is the work the Retirement Edge team does for you every month. Four layers of analysis. Multiple data sources reviewed. Ongoing monitoring of the markets, the news, and the economic environment — all compressed into one clear monthly update. You never have to wonder what to do with your retirement account. The team has done the research. You act on it in minutes, and get back to your life.
The TSP Edge strategy is designed for federal employees and military members with a Thrift Savings Plan account. It rotates among the five core TSP funds (C, S, I, F, and G) based on the monthly update. The comparison benchmark is the TSP Lifecycle 2030 (L 2030) fund — the most widely held target-date option among TSP participants.
The TSP Edge strategy outperformed the L 2030 benchmark in 16 of 20 years. Its worst single year was −10.76% (2011), compared to the L 2030's worst year of −27.51% (2008) — a substantially shallower drawdown in a crisis year. In 2020, TSP Edge returned +79.59%, one of the most remarkable single-year performances in the 20-year record.
| Year | TSP Edge | L 2030 | Edge Wins |
|---|
The 401(k) Edge strategy is designed for private-sector retirement savers in any 401(k), 403(b), or similar defined-contribution plan. Because fund menus vary by employer, Retirement Edge offers two strategy variations — Strategy A (domestic-heavy tilt) and Strategy B (broader/international tilt) — so subscribers can use the option that best matches their plan's available funds. The benchmark for both is the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund (FFFEX).
Rotates among Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, and Money Market funds. Best for plans with strong U.S. equity options.
Worst year: −7.46% (2008) vs FFFEX worst of −36.93% (2008). Strategy A avoided the bulk of the financial crisis by rotating to Money Market before the worst of the decline. Best year: +54.06% (2020).
| Year | Strategy A | FFFEX | Edge Wins |
|---|
Rotates among Large Cap (S&P 500), Extended Market, International, and Money Market funds. Best for plans with strong international and extended-market options.
Worst year: −12.24% (2011). Best year: +79.60% (2020). Both strategies significantly outperformed FFFEX over the full 20-year period.
The Alpha Edge strategy is designed for self-directed investors managing taxable or IRA accounts through a brokerage. It rotates among a curated set of index ETFs — including QQQ, S&P 500, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Treasuries, Gold, and Money Market — based on the monthly update. The benchmark is the same Fidelity Freedom 2030 (FFFEX) lifecycle fund used for the 401(k) strategies.
The most striking feature of the Alpha Edge backtest is its consistency: zero negative years across the 20-year backtest. The worst single year was +1.50% (2011) — a positive return in a year when the TSP L 2030 benchmark lost money. The best single year was +48.68% (2025). The strategy's 19.96% CAGR compounded $10,000 into $380,641 — more than 10 times what the same investment returned in FFFEX ($36,944).
| Year | Alpha Edge | FFFEX | Edge Wins |
|---|
Seen the evidence you needed? Founding members get early access to the first monthly update on October 1 — and 20% off their first year. Reserve your spot →
CAGR tells you how much you earned. Risk-adjusted metrics tell you how much risk you took to earn it. The four metrics below are the standard tools used by institutional investors, fund analysts, and financial researchers to evaluate whether a return was worth the risk required to achieve it.
Measures return per unit of total risk (standard deviation). Formula: (Portfolio Return − Risk-Free Rate) ÷ Standard Deviation. A higher Sharpe means you earned more return for each unit of volatility you accepted. A Sharpe above 1.0 is considered strong; above 0.5 is above average.
Like the Sharpe, but it only penalizes downside risk — the volatility that actually hurts you. Upside swings are not counted against the strategy. A higher Sortino relative to Sharpe indicates that most of a strategy's volatility is positive (gains), not negative (losses).
Equals the CAGR divided by the Maximum Drawdown (the worst peak-to-trough loss in the period). A higher Calmar means you earned more annualized return per unit of your worst-case historical loss. It rewards strategies that control their worst outcomes rather than just avoiding average losses.
Measures how much returns vary year to year. A higher standard deviation reflects wider swings — both up and down. When evaluated alongside the Sharpe and Sortino ratios, standard deviation reveals whether a strategy's variability comes with proportional reward, or simply represents uncompensated risk.
All figures sourced from the backtest, January 2006 – December 2025.
| Metric | TSP Edge | TSP L 2030 | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 14.35% | 7.33% | Edge +7.03 pts/yr |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.919 | 0.578 | Edge +59% |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.671 | 0.841 | Edge +99% |
| Calmar Ratio | 2.444 | 2.406 | Comparable |
| Maximum Drawdown | −34.82% | −39.61% | Edge shallower |
| Std Dev (annualized) | 13.87% | 10.32% | Edge higher — more return-seeking |
| Metric | Strategy A | FFFEX | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 14.30% | 6.75% | Edge +7.55 pts/yr |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.972 | — | Strong risk-adjusted return |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.822 | — | Predominantly upside volatility |
| Calmar Ratio | 2.322 | — | Solid return per unit of drawdown |
| Maximum Drawdown | −30.18% | −48.38% | Edge 18 pts shallower |
| Std Dev (annualized) | 12.93% | ~10.6% | Modest premium for 7.5 pts/yr extra return |
Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar are not separately published for FFFEX. MaxDD and estimated StdDev sourced from the benchmark data, January 2006 – December 2025. Retirement Edge is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Fidelity Investments or FMR LLC; the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund (FFFEX) is named only to identify the benchmark.
TSP Edge earns a Sharpe Ratio of 0.919 — nearly 60% better than the L 2030's 0.578. That means for every unit of risk TSP Edge takes, it returns proportionally more. The Sortino Ratio of 1.671 (vs 0.841) confirms that the strategy's higher standard deviation comes primarily from years of large gains — not from large losses. The maximum drawdown of −34.82% is shallower than the benchmark's −39.61%, despite the Edge strategy producing nearly double the annualized return.
The 401(k) Edge Strategy A's Sortino Ratio of 1.822 is particularly noteworthy: at nearly twice the benchmark's level, it indicates that the strategy's volatility is heavily weighted toward its best years (including +54.06% in 2020 and +29.72% in 2019) rather than its worst (−7.46% in 2008). Its maximum drawdown of −30.18% versus FFFEX's −48.38% demonstrates that the rotation mechanism consistently reduced the magnitude of bad years — which is precisely the behavior that matters most in a retirement portfolio where recovery time is limited.
Disclaimer: All performance data is backtested historically, January 2006 through December 2025. Backtested performance is hypothetical — it does not represent actual trading results and does not guarantee future returns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Retirement Edge does not provide personalized investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making changes to your retirement accounts.
Retirement Edge didn't begin as a product. It began in 2008, watching the people around us — and ourselves — lose years of progress in a matter of months. The hardest part to accept was how much of the loss was self-inflicted: selling near the bottom out of fear, waiting too long to come back, guessing at moments no one can reliably guess. That approach wasn't just ineffective — it did real damage to the families living with the results.
We came at the problem from two directions. One of us — trained through a professional doctorate and decades in a demanding, high-stakes field — became convinced the answer wasn't a better prediction but a better discipline: a rules-based process that responds to what the data already shows instead of forecasting what it might do next. The other, a military veteran with an MBA who manages his own TSP, pressure-tested it through his own investing and built the business around it. We aren't financial planners paid to keep you fully invested through everything. We're two people who wanted a method we could actually trust with our own retirement.
So we built one — using computer analysis and decades of market history, applied to the established funds already sitting in ordinary accounts. Nothing exotic, no products you've never heard of: the C, S and I funds, the familiar index ETFs, the choices already available to you — used with discipline. We follow the same monthly update we publish, in our own TSP, 401(k), and independent brokerage accounts. When the strategy has a hard year, we have it too.
Backtested 2006–2025. In every case the approach outperformed the standard strategies most investors rely on, measured against 20 years of real market history — including 2008, 2020, and 2022. Backtested and hypothetical; past performance does not guarantee future results.
— The founders of Retirement Edge
Choose the strategy built for your account and reserve your founding rate now — 20% off your first year. Review your first monthly update at launch, see it in your own account.
Start Free TrialBacktested data: January 2006 – December 2025 · Starting value: $10,000 · All figures are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading results.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Retirement Edge is a financial research and publishing service, not a registered investment adviser; nothing on this site is individualized investment, tax, or legal advice.
© 2026 Retirement Edge · 400 W State St #241, Fremont, Ohio 43420 · Privacy · Terms · Start Free Trial