See what your TSP could grow into by the time you retire. Choose your own fund mix, run the numbers, and watch your future balance take shape. Your results are based on how that same allocation performed over the last 20 years.
† Projections use 20-year CAGRs (Jan 2006–Dec 2025) sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. TSP Edge: 14.35%. Your allocation’s return is the weighted average of each fund's historical CAGR. Backtested performance is hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Estimates based on 20-year backtested data · Portfolio Visualizer · Volatility & Sharpe are approximations · Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The TSP Lifecycle funds are designed for simplicity — automatically shifting toward bonds as you approach retirement. That sounds safe. But over 20 years of real market history, the strategy has a consistent weakness.
In 2008, the L 2030 fund fell 27.5%. The TSP Edge model's rules-based rotation moved defensively before the worst of the decline — ending the year with a far smaller loss. Every dollar lost in a crash requires more than a dollar to recover.
A −27% loss requires a +37% gain just to break even. Every year your TSP spends recovering is a year it isn't compounding forward. The TSP Edge model avoids this trap by rotating defensively — not after the crash, but before it deepens.
The L Funds rebalance mechanically, regardless of market conditions. A rules-based monthly update responds to what's actually happening — rotating among C, S, I, F, and G funds when conditions warrant, holding when they don't.
TSP Edge publishes disciplined, rules-based research, distilled into one clear action for your TSP account. No daily monitoring. No complex decisions. Approximately five minutes per month.
On the first trading day of each month, Retirement Edge publishes the TSP Edge model portfolio — the model's current allocation across the C/S/I/F/G funds this month.
Review the update on your dashboard. Log into tsp.gov and check your current allocation. Most months, no change is needed — you simply hold.
When a change is called for, submit an interfund transfer (IFT) at tsp.gov. You're in control of every decision. The whole process takes about five minutes.
Daily updates would exhaust your IFT allowance and create costly whipsawing. Annual rebalancing misses real market shifts entirely. Monthly updates sit in the sweet spot: responsive enough to avoid major downturns, infrequent enough to avoid noise.
The model typically changes allocations three to four times per year — meaning most months, you simply hold with no action needed. When a change is called for, one IFT is all it takes.
See the Full TSP Edge Research →TSP Edge has backtested data through every major market correction since 2006 — the full period of available TSP fund history. Here's how it performed when the L Funds were at their worst.
The L 2030 fund lost 27.5% in 2008. TSP investors who held the L Fund through the crash needed years to recover. The TSP Edge model's rules-based rotation moved toward the G and F Funds before the steepest declines, significantly limiting the drawdown.
TSP Edge: Far smaller loss than L 2030A decade of strong equity growth. TSP's C and S Funds performed well — and the TSP Edge model captured most of that growth while rotating defensively during short-term corrections. Starting from a higher 2009 base (less damage absorbed) compounded significantly over 10 years.
TSP Edge: Strong compounding from higher baseIn March 2020, U.S. equities fell 34% in 33 days. TSP investors who held C and S Funds through the drop saw large temporary losses. The TSP Edge model's monthly update positioned defensively before the worst of the drop, then rotated back into equities for the recovery.
TSP Edge: Positive year overallBoth equities (C/S/I) and bonds (F Fund) fell simultaneously in 2022 — an unusual double loss that hit even conservative TSP allocations. The TSP Edge model rotated into the G Fund, which is guaranteed by the U.S. government and never loses value, protecting the balance.
TSP Edge: G Fund rotation protected balanceAcross the full backtested period — Jan 2006 through Dec 2025 — including the 2008 crisis, 2020 crash, and 2022 bear market, TSP Edge produced a 14.35% backtested CAGR vs 7.33% for the TSP L 2030 Fund. $10,000 grew to $146,136 vs $41,118.
TSP Edge: 14.35% CAGR vs 7.33% L 2030 · $146,136 vs $41,118
Annual returns, cumulative growth chart, drawdown analysis, and the complete 20-year research dataset.
The calculator uses 20-year historical CAGRs sourced from Portfolio Visualizer (Jan 2006–Dec 2025): TSP Edge model at 14.35%, C Fund 11.01%, S Fund 9.53%, I Fund 5.91%, F Fund 3.41%, G Fund 2.85%, and L Funds blended at 7.33%. Your projected balance is calculated by weighting your allocation across those rates. All results are hypothetical.
The Thrift Savings Plan offers five individual funds: C Fund (S&P 500 large-cap stocks, 11.01% historical CAGR), S Fund (small-cap U.S. stocks, 9.53%), I Fund (international developed markets, 5.91%), F Fund (bond index, 3.41%), and G Fund (government securities, guaranteed principal, 2.85%). The L Funds are target-date blends that shift toward bonds as your target date approaches. All CAGRs are backtested Jan 2006–Dec 2025 per Portfolio Visualizer.
Log into your TSP account at tsp.gov and submit an interfund transfer (IFT). The TSP allows two free interfund transfers per calendar month — plus unlimited moves into the G Fund at any time. Changes submitted before market close on a business day typically take effect that same evening. The full process takes about five minutes.
This calculator projects your TSP balance at retirement — not a monthly annuity payout. For TSP annuity estimates, use the annuity calculator at tsp.gov. Your projected ending balance from this tool gives you a strong starting point for those calculations — the higher the balance, the larger the potential annuity.
This calculator projects growth based on your fund allocation — it does not calculate TSP loan amounts, repayment schedules, or withdrawal tax implications. For TSP loan and withdrawal calculations, visit tsp.gov directly. Early withdrawals before age 59½ are generally subject to a 10% penalty plus ordinary income tax on the amount withdrawn.
Traditional TSP accounts are subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs) starting at age 73 (as of 2023 SECURE 2.0 legislation). This calculator does not model RMDs — it projects your balance assuming full compounding to your stated retirement age. For RMD planning, consult a tax professional or the RMD tools at tsp.gov.
Yes. Uniformed service members enrolled in the Blended Retirement System (BRS) or the legacy High-3 retirement system with active TSP accounts use the same C/S/I/F/G/L funds as civilian federal employees. This calculator and the TSP Edge model portfolio works identically for both FERS civilian employees and military service members.
No. Retirement Edge is a financial research and newsletter publication — not a registered investment adviser. This calculator and the monthly TSP Edge update are published for informational and educational purposes only. You make every investment decision independently. We operate under the publisher exemption, Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.
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