See what your 401(k) could grow into by the time you retire. Choose your own fund mix, run the numbers, and watch your future balance take shape. Your results are based on how that same allocation performed over the last 20 years.
Every employer's 401(k) fund menu is different. The calculator will not identify your available funds for you, so first review your plan's investment options and then enter only the matching categories below.
Sign in to your provider's website or review your latest plan materials. Identify which broad fund categories are actually offered to you:
Use the sliders for the categories your plan offers. Set every unavailable category to 0%, then divide the full allocation among your available choices.
If you are unsure how one of your plan's funds should be categorized, review its objective or fact sheet before entering it.
Choose only the fund categories available in your actual 401(k). Set unavailable categories to 0%, make your allocation total 100%, and the calculator will show one projection for your allocation alongside a fixed 401(k) Edge comparison.
† Select only fund categories available in your employer's plan. Your projection uses 20-year CAGRs (Jan 2006–Dec 2025) sourced from Portfolio Visualizer, weighted by the percentages you enter. The 401(k) Edge comparison applies the primary model's 14.30% backtested CAGR to the same balance, contributions, and time period. It does not determine which 401(k) Edge model fits your plan. Backtested performance is hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Estimates based on 20-year backtested data · Portfolio Visualizer · Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Target-date funds are designed for simplicity — automatically shifting toward bonds as you approach retirement. That sounds safe. But over 20 years of real market history, the strategy has a consistent, costly weakness.
In 2008, the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund fell 36.9%. The 401(k) Edge model's rules-based rotation moved defensively before the worst of the decline — ending the year with far smaller losses. Every dollar lost in a crash requires more than a dollar to recover.
A −36.9% loss requires a +59% gain just to break even. Every year your 401(k) spends recovering is a year it isn't compounding forward. The 401(k) Edge model avoids this trap by rotating defensively — not after the crash, but before it deepens.
Target-date funds rebalance mechanically toward bonds over time, regardless of market conditions. A rules-based monthly update responds to what's actually happening — rotating among fund categories when conditions warrant, holding when they don't.
401(k) Edge publishes disciplined, rules-based research, distilled into one clear action for your 401(k) account. No daily monitoring. No complex decisions. Approximately five minutes per month.
On the first trading day of each month, Retirement Edge publishes the 401(k) Edge model portfolio — the model's current allocation across your fund categories this month.
Review the update on your dashboard. Log into your provider — Fidelity, Vanguard, Empower, or any other — and check your current allocation. Most months, no change is needed.
When a change is called for, submit a fund reallocation. You're in control of every decision. The whole process takes about five minutes.
Unlike the TSP's two-transfer limit, most 401(k) providers allow daily changes. But more frequent trading creates costly whipsawing on short-term noise. Monthly updates sit in a sweet spot: responsive enough to avoid major downturns, infrequent enough to stay out of the noise.
The model typically changes allocations three to four times per year — meaning most months, you simply hold with no action needed. When a change is called for, one reallocation is all it takes.
See the Full 401(k) Edge Research →401(k) Edge has backtested data through every major market correction since 2006. Here's how it performed when target-date funds were at their worst.
The Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund lost 36.9% in 2008. 401(k) investors who held target-date funds through the crash needed years to recover. The 401(k) Edge model's rules-based rotation moved toward bond and money market categories before the steepest declines, significantly limiting the drawdown.
401(k) Edge: Far smaller loss than Fidelity Freedom 2030A decade of strong equity growth. 401(k) Large Cap and Mid/Small Cap funds performed well — and the 401(k) Edge model captured most of that growth while rotating defensively during short-term corrections. Starting from a higher 2009 base (less damage absorbed) compounded significantly over 10 years.
401(k) Edge: Strong compounding from higher baseIn March 2020, U.S. equities fell 34% in 33 days. 401(k) investors who held equity-heavy allocations or target-date funds saw large temporary losses. The 401(k) Edge model's monthly update positioned defensively before the worst of the drop, then rotated back into equities for the recovery.
401(k) Edge: Positive year overallBoth equities and bonds fell simultaneously in 2022 — an unusual double loss that hit even conservative target-date allocations hard. The 401(k) Edge model rotated into money market and stable-value categories, protecting the balance against a bear market that caught most passive strategies off guard.
401(k) Edge: Money market rotation protected balanceAcross the full backtested period — Jan 2006 through Dec 2025 — including the 2008 crisis, 2020 crash, and 2022 bear market, 401(k) Edge produced a 14.30% backtested CAGR vs 6.75% for the Fidelity Freedom 2030 fund. $10,000 grew to $144,780 vs $36,944.
401(k) Edge: 14.30% CAGR vs 6.75% · $144,780 vs $36,944
Annual returns, cumulative growth chart, drawdown analysis, and the complete 20-year backtested dataset.
The calculator uses 20-year historical CAGRs sourced from Portfolio Visualizer (Jan 2006–Dec 2025): Large Cap 10.98%, Mid Cap 9.42%, Small Cap 9.20%, International 5.91%, Bond 3.12%, Money Market 1.66%, and Lifecycle 2030 blend 6.75%. Your projected balance is calculated by weighting only the categories and percentages you enter. All results are hypothetical.
Yes. The calculator uses seven common categories that can be matched to funds from Fidelity, Vanguard, Empower, Schwab, T. Rowe Price, Principal, and other providers. Employer plans differ, so review your own plan's investment menu, use only the closest available categories, and leave unavailable categories at 0%.
Log into your 401(k) provider's website and navigate to fund allocation or investment options. Most providers allow you to change your allocation at any time — changes typically take effect the same business day or the next. The whole process takes about five minutes. You make every decision independently.
Sign in to your 401(k) provider and review the investment menu or each fund's fact sheet. Match each available fund to the closest calculator category by its objective—for example, an S&P 500 index fund generally belongs under Large Cap. Use only categories your plan offers and set every unavailable category to 0%.
This calculator projects growth based on your fund allocation — it does not calculate rollover tax implications or IRA conversion scenarios. For rollover planning (401k to IRA or to a new employer plan), consult your provider or a tax professional. The projected ending balance from this tool gives you a strong reference point for any rollover decision.
The calculator uses your annual contribution as entered — you can include your employer match in that figure to see the full picture. For example, if you contribute $10,000 and your employer matches $3,000, enter $13,000 as your annual contribution. The match grows at the same rate as the rest of your portfolio.
Traditional 401(k) accounts are subject to required minimum distributions (RMDs) starting at age 73 (as of 2023 SECURE 2.0 legislation). This calculator does not model RMDs — it projects your balance assuming full compounding to your stated retirement age. For RMD planning, consult a tax professional or your plan provider.
No. Retirement Edge is a financial research and newsletter publication — not a registered investment adviser. This calculator and the monthly 401(k) Edge update are published for informational and educational purposes only. You make every investment decision independently. We operate under the publisher exemption, Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.
Have a different account — or want to see the strategy behind the numbers? Start here.
See the full 20-year 401(k) Edge research, explore the backtest data, or compare all three Retirement Edge strategies.
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