See what your investments could grow into by the time you retire. Choose your own mix, run the numbers, and watch your future balance take shape. Your results are based on how that same allocation performed over the last 20 years.
† Projections use 20-year CAGRs (Jan 2006–Dec 2025) sourced from Portfolio Visualizer. Alpha Edge backtested CAGR: 19.96%. Your allocation uses weighted-average historical returns. Backtested results are hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Estimates based on 20-year backtested data · Portfolio Visualizer · Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The index fund industry is built around a simple premise: stay invested, diversify broadly, and hold. That works — until a bad market cuts your portfolio in half. Alpha Edge is built around a different principle.
In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped 37%. A 60/40 portfolio dropped 22%. Alpha Edge's model rotated away from equities before the worst periods — finishing the year positive.
A −37% loss requires a +59% gain just to break even. By avoiding the worst years, the model spends more time compounding at positive rates — which is where the long-term advantage builds.
Most investors panic-sell at bottoms and buy back in too late. A rules-based monthly update removes emotion from the equation entirely — one monthly update, one trade, done.
Alpha Edge runs disciplined, rules-based research and distills it into one clear action. No complex decisions. No watching the market daily. Approximately five minutes per month.
On the first trading day of each month, Retirement Edge publishes the Alpha Edge update — which index ETF to hold this month.
Log into your dashboard. See the update and the reasoning behind it. Most months, no change is needed — you simply hold.
When a change is called for, log into your brokerage account and make one trade. You're in control of every decision from start to finish.
Monthly updates sit in a sweet spot: frequent enough to respond to real market regime changes, but infrequent enough to avoid whipsawing on short-term noise. The model typically changes allocations only three or four times per year.
That means most months you simply hold — no action needed. And when the model does call for a change, you act once and move on. No monitoring required in between.
Learn the Full Methodology →Alpha Edge has backtested data through the biggest market crises of the past two decades. Here's how it performed when buy-and-hold strategies were at their worst.
The S&P 500 lost 37%. Most target-date and lifecycle funds fell 20–40%. The Alpha Edge model's rules-based rotation moved away from equities before the worst of the collapse.
Alpha Edge: Positive yearA decade of nearly uninterrupted growth. Buy-and-hold investors did well — but the model's rotation toward the highest-performing index ETF each month compounded significantly faster than passive allocation.
Alpha Edge: Double-digit annual growthIn March 2020, the S&P 500 fell 34% in 33 days — the fastest bear market in history. The model's monthly update rotated to a defensive position ahead of the steepest portion of the decline.
Alpha Edge: Positive year (+strong recovery)Both stocks and bonds fell sharply in 2022 — a rare simultaneous decline that hit even conservative portfolios hard. The model rotated into non-correlated assets including gold and money market instruments.
Alpha Edge: Positive yearAcross the full backtested period including all four major corrections, Alpha Edge has not recorded a single losing calendar year — with a 19.96% backtested CAGR vs 10.98% for VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Index).
Alpha Edge: 19.96% CAGR · Zero losing years
Annual returns, rolling returns, drawdown chart, risk vs return scatter, and the complete backtest dataset.
Yes. Because the calculator projects how a portfolio of index ETFs grows over time, it works for a Roth IRA, a traditional IRA, or any taxable brokerage account. Enter your current balance and annual contribution, set your allocation, and compare your allocation to the Alpha Edge model — the same way you'd use any retirement or Roth IRA calculator. The projection is identical regardless of account type; the difference is how withdrawals are taxed later.
An index investing calculator projects how a portfolio of index ETFs would grow over time using historical return data. This tool compares your chosen allocation to Alpha Edge's backtested 20-year return, so you can see the gap between passive buy-and-hold and a rules-based rotation approach.
Very few buy-and-hold strategies beat the S&P 500 over long periods after costs — and the ones that do typically take on more risk. Alpha Edge takes a different approach: instead of holding more aggressive assets, it rotates into the best-performing index category each month, avoiding the worst downturns. Its backtested 19.96% CAGR vs 10.98% for VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Index) over Jan 2006–Dec 2025 reflects that difference. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The calculator uses historical CAGR data sourced from Portfolio Visualizer for January 2006 through December 2025. It projects growth using a constant annual rate for each asset class — so it's a useful illustration of long-term compounding differences, but not a precise prediction. Real returns vary year to year and may be negative. Always treat projections as hypothetical illustrations, not forecasts.
Alpha Edge is a rules-based monthly update service from Retirement Edge. Each month, the model analyzes market conditions and publishes one clear update: which index ETF the model holds this month. You log into your brokerage account, make one trade, and you're done — usually in about 5 minutes. The model uses only everyday index ETFs (QQQ, SPY, bonds, gold, money market) — no options, no leverage, no shorts or derivatives.
This calculator and all content on Retirement Edge is investment research and publishing, not personalized investment advice. Retirement Edge is not a registered investment adviser. We publish research — you review it and make every investment decision independently. (Publisher exemption: Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.)
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